The international round table “China’s Strategy in Global Power Transitions: Challenges in a Turbulent World”
On February 19, 2025, the international round table “China’s Strategy in Global Power Transitions: Challenges in a Turbulent World” was held at the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China.
Organizers:
- A. Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, NAS of Ukraine
- Ukrainian Association of Sinologists
- Sinica Podcast
- Publishing House “Helvetica”
Speakers:
- Klaus Larres, Distinguished Professor of History & International Affairs, University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill, U.S.
- Qiang Liu, Secretary-General of the Global Forum on Energy Security, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, P.R.C.
- Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Director of the China Studies Centre, Riga Stradins University, Latvia
- Dmytro Yefremov, Board Member, Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, Ukraine
The event was moderated by Kaiser Kuo, host and co-founder of the Sinica Podcast.
Kaiser Kuo noted that as the Russo-Ukrainian war enters its fourth year, the conflict has reshaped the global order, exposing vulnerabilities, shifting alliances, and forcing major powers to reassess their strategies. He highlighted that the Biden administration’s approach to China and its strong support for Ukraine are now history, with President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth charting a new and uncertain course. Trump’s recent conversation with Putin signals potential realignments that will have far-reaching consequences for Ukraine, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and global power dynamics.
Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova outlined two main risks for small states like Latvia due to Trump’s rapprochement with Russia. Increased security threat as the first risk. The Baltic states have relied on collective defense, but confidence in NATO’s security guarantees has been shaken, raising concerns about a potential Russian invasion. And a new “Iron Curtain” as the second. Trump’s undermining of the transatlantic alliance threatens European stability, as long-standing trust in U.S. commitments weakens.
Regarding China-Russia ties, she highlighted two red flags for the Baltics: both Russia and China view NATO expansion eastward as a provocation, and China’s former ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, questioned the sovereignty of post-Soviet states, raising concerns in the region.
Dmytro Yefremov argued that Russia and China are not looking like true allies. If the U.S. normalizes relations with Moscow, Washington will fully shift its focus to countering China. In this scenario, Russia could adopt a more neutral stance or even work to covertly contain China. He also mentioned the recent China-Ukraine diplomatic meeting at the Munich Security Conference, where President Zelenskyy suggested that for the first time, China appeared interested in pressuring Russia to end the war. Beijing may strategically seek to exploit the emerging opportunities presented by the deepening rift between the United States and Ukraine, positioning itself to capitalize on potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics. China might be using this opportunity to restore ties with the EU while ensuring it is not sidelined from future Ukraine-Russia negotiations.
Qiang Liu stated that China does not view the war in Ukraine as a core issue but rather a European conflict. He emphasized that China’s energy security is not at risk, despite buying Russian resources, as Beijing has diversified its energy imports. He also noted that for the first time in years, China’s oil consumption declined in 2024, largely due to the growth of alternative energy sources. Regarding diplomacy, he reaffirmed that China seeks to avoid conflicts and maintain friendly relations with all countries.
Klaus Larres pointed out that Trump’s approach to Ukraine sidelines key stakeholders, particularly European countries, despite their significant financial support for Kyiv. He argued that Europe must be included in peace negotiations, but so far, it has been largely ignored. The scholar also stated that a Sino-Russian split remains unlikely, despite U.S. efforts. China is unlikely to be brought into Ukraine negotiations but will likely play a role in post-war reconstruction.
Kaiser Kuo added that unlike during the Mao era, when border conflicts strained relations, there is no reason for a Sino-Russian split today. China benefits from watching the Western alliance weaken, and the idea of European strategic autonomy now seems more realistic.
Klaus Larres drew a historical parallel between Trump and Nixon, stating that Nixon’s diplomatic approach to China and the Soviet Union was carefully planned over years, while Trump’s actions appear reactionary and chaotic. China has an opportunity to rebuild relations with the EU, but this will likely focus on economic ties rather than a formal alliance.
Una highlighted Chinese narratives that portray European support for Ukraine as a challenge to peacebuilding. She noted that Ursula von der Leyen’s speech at this year’s Munich Conference took a softer stance on China, signaling a potential shift in EU-China relations.
About China’s role in post-war reconstruction:
Dmytro Yefremov stated that China’s entry into peacebuilding is too late, as Ukrainian public opinion remains largely negative toward Beijing, seeing it as Russia’s ally. However, Ukraine’s leadership views China as a potential investor in logistics and energy sectors. Key sectors likely to attract Chinese interest in Ukraine encompass not only logistics and transportation networks, but also agricultural infrastructure and potentially renewable energy, as China seeks to expand its influence in these strategically significant domains.
Qiang Liu emphasized that China could play a role in post-war reconstruction, but likely through European partnerships rather than direct investments in Ukraine. Qiang also noted that two of the six BRI corridors have been destroyed by the war, making it harder for Chinese goods to reach Europe via Russia. China will work on revitalizing the BRI projects in Ukraine.
Klaus Larres siad that Germany will likely prioritize its role in Ukraine’s reconstruction over China, as Berlin poses no political risks for Kyiv, unlike Beijing.